At a glance
- National moratorium remains a low-probability scenario, analyst report says
Post-Election Outlook Clouds US Hyperscale Pipeline
More than half of the US hyperscale data center pipeline faces heightened regulatory friction following the 2026 midterm elections, according to analysts at BMI. The firm projects that roughly 53 percent of hyperscaler pipeline growth is concentrated in “newly flipped governor states,” including Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, placing those projects at risk of slowdowns through the end of 2028.
Tuesday’s elections shifted control of both the House and Senate from Republicans to Democrats and flipped several gubernatorial races from red to blue. Texas, Georgia, and Ohio elected Democrats with public anti-data center stances, while Pennsylvania re-elected Governor Josh Shapiro, who introduced a series of restrictions on data centers over the summer.
BMI characterized the likely outcome as political intervention rather than a substantial policy shift, and said a broad national moratorium on new digital infrastructure projects remains unlikely. Construction schedules for 2027 are largely locked in, meaning the immediate focus falls on 2028 and beyond.
State-Level Pause Risks and Construction Delays
Texas is already under a data center construction pause imposed by outgoing Governor Greg Abbott. BMI believes this pause could “plausibly extend into late 2027” as incoming Governor Gina Hinojosa takes office. The firm did not provide details on the scope or duration of Abbott’s existing pause beyond noting its current existence.
Competing market intelligence firm Cleanview offers a parallel assessment. Its analysis found that newly elected governors could pause 41 percent of planned US data centers. According to Cleanview founder Michael Thomas, 159GW of planned data center capacity sits in states where new governors back a pause, representing 41 percent of the country’s planned pipeline. An additional 69.2GW, or 18 percent, is located in states where the winning candidate wants to change tax breaks or other rules but has not backed a pause.
Writing on X, Thomas stated that Tuesday’s results do not signal the end of the data center boom, but will likely bring pauses in some of the largest markets and new regulations across the country—even in traditionally laissez-faire states such as Texas.
Competing Pressures on Hyperscaler Capex
BMI said the impact of the elections on hyperscaler capital expenditure “remains to be seen, as two opposing effects are currently in tension.” A slowdown in the AI buildout would exert downward pressure on capex forecasts as volumes compress and imposed moratoria push back 2028 project starts. However, tighter regulation could exert upward pressure on capex if Democrats pursue a slower but more expensive buildout through tax increases and bring-your-own-power requirements, since all-in construction costs and power procurement costs would add to the overall capex bill.
The firm did not quantify the magnitude of either effect or provide revised capex forecasts.
Power Permitting and Clean Energy Mandates
Cleanview also foresees consequences for power infrastructure. Thomas said there will likely be “more clean energy in some states and fewer on-site gas plants in others.” On-site gas plants require air permits, an approval process that often runs through offices controlled by the executive branch, meaning new Democratic governors could delay or block those permits.
Developers may also be forced to procure more clean energy. Thomas cited David Crowley, the incoming governor of Wisconsin, who has called for 100 percent renewable energy as a condition for approving data center projects. Cleanview did not specify how many additional gigawatts of power projects could be affected beyond these directional statements.
Voter Sentiment and Market Context
Local moratoriums and restrictions were backed across the country, with 56 percent of voters polled by NBC saying the AI data center build-out was a major factor in their voting decision. BMI did not release its own polling data.
The reports arrive as hyperscalers continue to scale AI-driven compute capacity, though neither BMI nor Cleanview provided aggregate figures for total US hyperscale pipeline capacity beyond the state-specific megawatt and gigawatt breakdowns cited above.
MegaWatt Intelligence Desk
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